By Duncan Smith
Professional gamblers don’t like to lose money, and they lose less when they bet on a sure thing.
They suddenly believe that President Donald Trump is a sure thing.
While a handful of remaining states that have yet to call Trump or rival Joe Biden the winner continue counting ballots (or manufacturing them…), oddsmakers have flipped from Biden to Trump.
Betting market odds on the U.S. presidential election have flipped to favor Republican President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to data from three aggregators.
New Zealand-based predictions market PredictIt has Trump leading Biden at 62 cents-to-37 cents, from being 61 cents-to-44 centers in favor of the Democratic candidate on Nov. 2.
PredictIt’s website underwent an outage earlier, with the predictions market posting on Twitter that it was working to “bring service back as soon as possible,” without saying exactly why it had gone down.
Meanwhile, bettors on British betting exchange Betfair are giving Trump a 75% chance of winning a second term in the White House, up from 39% when polls opened on Tuesday morning. Biden’s odds of a win on Betfair have fallen to 25% from 61% earlier.
“Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said.
“This has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population,” added Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets.
Granted, this isn’t scientific — but, obviously, neither were all of those ‘scientific’ polls that predicted a massive Biden blow-out.
So — are betting markets going to replace polling firms for 2024?
We shall see.
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