By Duncan Smith
The left-wing media’s “voter suppression campaigns,” as Rush Limbaugh describes them, are continuing full-bore.
The campaigns manifest themselves, mostly, in repeating false polling, inflated data showing large Joe Biden leads, and ‘expert commentary’ explaining how there’s no way pollsters are going to “get it wrong” two elections in a row.
But in fact, a couple of pollsters who were spot-on when President Trump faced the horribly corrupt Hillary Clinton are once again predicting he’ll likely lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College (because in our constitutional system, that’s what counts — read why here).
How do they know?
Because they’ve identified a phenomenon called the “shy Trump voter.”
They are people who do not show up in national polls because they fear letting people know they are supporters of the president will get them doxxed, fired from their job, ostracized publicly as being racist bigots, etc.
And frankly, who could blame them? Trump supporters have had to face that abuse now for years.
Politico interviewed a couple of pollsters who explain the phenomenon:
This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump's support. The reason is 'shy' Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the 'shy voter' idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.
For Cahaly, those votes are likely to make the difference again. 'There's a lot of hidden Trump votes out there,' he says. 'Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I'm not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.'
They then discuss why mainstream polling is whacked:
Robert Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group: Well first, we don't do national polls, and that's for the same reason I don't keep up with hits in a baseball game: It's an irrelevant statistic. But the battleground-state polls are a little closer [than the national polls], and there's a lot at play. People are going to be shocked. A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it's going to be at an all-time high.
The models of who's going to turn out this year are very flawed. What type of person comes out for Trump? They're not a normal election participant. They're a low-propensity voter. We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now.
On why pollsters from the mainstream haven’t learned much:
Relying on live callers for polls is especially bad in this modern era, where 'social desirability bias' is in full play. People avoid awkward conversations. So when a person you don't know calls and asks how you feel about Donald Trump—and you don't know how they feel—you tend to give them an answer that you think will make them look at you in the best light. We've seen it year after year, and I think it is very much at play this year.
Polls are undercounting the people who don't want to give their real opinions. If they had corrected anything, why didn't they see Ron DeSantis winning in his 2018 race for governor in Florida? They made the exact same mistake with his opponent, Andrew Gillum. [The final RealClearPolitics polling average in that race had Gillum up by 3.6 percentage points. DeSantis won by 0.4 percentage points.] This wasn't some random state's race; this was the hottest, meanest—neck-and-neck races for governor and senator in Florida in an off-year election. Every single major player was polling that state. And 100 percent of them got it wrong; we got it right.
Why do Trump supporters find it difficult to say they like him?
Cahaly: I believe it was prevalent. In 2016, the worst being said about Trump voters is that they were 'deplorable.' 2020 is a whole different ballgame. It is worse this time—significantly worse. This year had more things where you can get punished for expressing an opinion outside the mainstream than almost any year I can think of in modern history.
I'm finding that people are very hesitant [to share their preference for Trump], because now it's not just being called 'deplorable.' It's people getting beat up for wearing the wrong hat, people getting harassed for having a sticker on their car. People just do not want to say anything.
Fascinating. And there is more, here, if you’re interested.
We wouldn’t be surprised if we see a historic turnout this year for the president (and, hopefully, for Republicans in general).
Biden's inflation is GETTING WORSE by the month...
Around the world, supply chains continue to be disrupted. Delays are now commonplace. And they're going to get worse.
There IS a financial reset coming - that's just true. All the signs indicate as much.