By Duncan Smith
Conservative talk radio king Rush Limbaugh was all giddy on Friday following what he (and we) believes was a stellar debate performance by President Donald Trump.
But more than that, Limbaugh excitedly pointed out that, with just a few days before Election Day, all of the polling and political trend lines are favoring the president, not his hapless, corrupt Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
I’ve got some polling data here… “Trump reaches critical 52% approval rate entering the final election stretch — With just 12 days to go before the election, Trump’s approval rating has popped to 52%.” Now, that is considered — traditionally and historically — the Holy Grail of reelection numbers. This is Rasmussen Reports.
“The president’s rating jumped from 49 to 52%.” It’s a job approval poll. It jumped three points in the three-day rolling average Rasmussen puts out in its Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. So Trump is at 52% approval. That is a key number. Traditionally, if an incumbent president reaches 52% in the final stretch, he doesn’t lose the presidential election.
Fifty-two percent, it’s a magic number, and it’s that… There might be a couple of exceptions to it over the years. But it is firmly established to have happened often enough to be a key indicator. “In addition to the daily approval rating, Rasmussen and others this week have also charted Trump’s rise in the presidential race, tightening to two to three points with Biden.”
So it’s all moving in the right direction. In addition to that, Trump has picked up eight points in Ohio in one month, and the Drive-Bys are quiet. It’s worthy to note that the Drive-By Media is ignoring this. But they made a big deal about Biden being up five in Ohio, and now that he’s gone the opposite way, they are standing mute. They’re conditioning voters to expect Biden to win.
That’s what this all is. But I think the Trump rallies are making the silent voter more bold. I think so more and more people are watching that’s rallies. I think they’re getting a different psychological effect from them. “Fox reported Wednesday that its poll showed a dramatic eight-point shift toward Trump and away from Biden in Ohio,” and this is gonna get even worse after Biden’s performance last night about the oil industry.
This is big in Pennsylvania and Ohio and some of these other states. For the first time in four months, Trump is ahead in the Real Clear Politics average. It’s by less than a point, but everybody considers this the Holy Grail. …
The trend line is all in Trump’s direction, exactly as it was in 2016. One more. This is Rasmussen. This is the National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval for President, and this is something. October 19th through 23rd, 2020. On Monday October 19th, Trump’s approval number among African-American likely voters — job approval — was 25%. The next day, October 20th, it fell a point. Trump’s job approval among black voters, 24%.
This is likely black voters. But on Wednesday it began to change. On Wednesday, October 21st, 31% job approval among black likely voters. Then Thursday, yesterday, 37% job approval black likely voters. Today, 46%. So we’ve gone: Monday, October 19th, 25%; Friday, October 23rd, 46% Black likely voter job approval, Donald Trump. What happened? What happened? The debate happened? Fiddy Cent? What happened?