By Duncan Smith
Though much of the country is slowly reopening as the coronavirus outbreak curve ‘flattens,’ the economic devastation left in the wake of the pandemic is still being calculated.
We already know the price tag will be massive…because it’s already massive.
And we know, too, that the virus has killed tens of thousands of Americans, though we’re pretty certain the ‘official’ number being touted by certain reporting agencies and the government has been inflated.
Speaking of coronavirus deaths, all of the economic destruction and loss of our civil liberties, the latter of which have been taken by authoritarian (Democrat) governors and mayors drunk on power, came largely due to guesstimates containing in a model that experts have now determined to have been “totally unreliable” after it claimed there would be 2.2. million COVID-19 deaths in America.
Fox News reported Saturday:
The heralded model United Kingdom experts have largely used to guide their coronavirus policies is “totally unreliable,” according to experts.
The criticisms follow a series of policy turnabouts, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to extend the national lockdown. The United States also used the model, which predicted upwards of 2.2 million deaths in the US without proper action. The prediction helped influence the White House to adopt a more serious approach to the pandemic.
Experts have derided the coding from Professor Neil Ferguson, warning that it is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming.”
“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust,” David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco, told the Daily Telegraph.
Ferguson, the virus modeler from Imperial College London and a scientific adviser to the government, warned that a half-million people in the UK would die from coronavirus, prompting Johnson to impose a national lockdown, which has only been loosened in recent days.
Fox News reports further:
The Imperial model works by using code to simulate transport links, population size, social networks and healthcare provisions to predict how coronavirus would spread. Researchers released the code behind it, which developers have criticized as being unreadable.
Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines.
“There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file. If we attempt two completely identical runs, only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first, the results are quite different,” the Edinburgh researchers wrote on the Github file.
And while a fix was provided, researchers found several more.
“Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters…otherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable,” said Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University.
As of Saturday, the United Kingdom has confirmed 241,455 cases of coronavirus, behind only the U.S. and Russia.
Ferguson, meanwhile, resigned earlier this month as a government adviser but not because of his bogus model.
No, he resigned after letting his married lover come to see him twice in violation of his own lockdown recommendation.