(NationalSentinel) The usual suspects — NeverTrumpers, Democrats,Â Bloomberg — tried their best to put a negative spin on new economic data released by the government on Friday but wading past the Trump Derangement Syndrome reveals some pretty impressive gains and indications POTUS Donald Trump’s economic policies (and the GOP tax cuts) are having the desired positive effects.
The latest snapshot of U.S. employment underscored mounting risks to the economy as President Donald Trump boosts tariffs on Chinese goods, threatening already-suffering factories and stores.
While overall payroll gains were healthy in July, retail employment dropped for a sixth straight month to a three-year low, Labor Department figures showed Friday, amid fierce competition from Amazon.com Inc. and other online sellers. At factories — already in a technicalÂ recessionÂ thanks to global weakness and the trade war — — average weekly hours worked sank to the lowest since 2011.
Both industries are poised for further pain. Trumpâ€™s levies and Chinaâ€™s retaliatory actions have hit goods producers hardest, with businesses paying higher costs, delaying expansion and hiring fewer people. The latest tariffs would expand that impact to consumers, who are driving the expansion, with a 10% tax on an additional $300 billion in goods including electronics and clothing.
U.S. stocks tumbled Friday, heading toward the worst week of 2019, as investors fretted over trade war escalation. Treasuries rose.
In sum, this is more proof that professional analysts’ predictions and analyses are generally garbage — because they are often politically or institutionally biased.
Digging deeper into the government’s stats we find:
— Payrolls rose by just 164,000, but we’re at 3.7 percent unemployment, which is consideredÂ full employment by any measure — so when most everyone looking for a jobÂ has a job, growth isn’t going to be gangbusters.
— Average hourly earnings are also increasing, up 3.2 percent from a year ago this month.
— Manufacturers/factories added 16,000 jobs, the most since January. And recall President Obama once told Americans, gloomily, those jobs are never coming back (not without someone waiving “a magic wand”).
Watch at the 2:50 mark:
— Goods producers including construction and mining companies added 15,000 jobs, which is less than half the five-year average…but…we’re at 3.7 percent unemployment so again, job growth isn’t going to be gangbusters when 99.9 percent of the population that wants to work/can workÂ is working.
The big stock mover into negative territory, other than doom and gloom regarding China, is a serious dropoff in retail employment.
Well, get used to it, markets: Retail has been giving ground to e-tail for a couple of years now, and brick-and-mortar shops and chains are going to continue to lose out to e-tailers like Jet and Amazon because that’s just the way of the world.
Where retailers lose, e-tailers will gain because they’ll need workers, too — for fulfillment.
And wage increases mean people will continue to spend — despite the ‘trade war’ with China, which is hitting Beijing harder than us (while the tariffs Trump has imposed are adding tens of billions to the Treasury).
- By Jon Dougherty
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