By Jon Dougherty
A new survey of Wall Street insiders found that nearly three-quarters of them believe that POTUS Donald Trump will be reelected, even as they see former Vice President Joe Biden as the most finance-friendly Democrat the president could face.
“Most expect Trump to win in 2020, but there’s still some nervousness around the event,” Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, wrote to clients, CNBC reported.
Sixty-seven percent “of our March 2019 survey respondents believe that Joe Biden is seen as the most acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market for the White House. No other candidate got a significant number of votes.”
The survey was taken after special counsel Robert Mueller issued his final report to the Justice Department noting — officially — that his team of Democrat-donor prosecutors did not find that the 2016 Trump campaign “colluded” with Mother Russia to ‘steal the election from Hillary Clinton.’
In all, CNBC reported, 141 equity-focused institutional investors were polled for the survey.
The site noted further:
Presidential elections can have important implications for financial markets based on what traders believe the elected candidate will prioritize while in office. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 450 points in the two days following Trump’s election in 2016 and jumped nearly 8 percent into year-end as investors grew confident in future corporate tax reform and big spending.
That’s not to say that the election of a Democratic candidate in 2020 would necessarily put a damper on the equity market, the financial news site noted.
However, Calvasina said that if Biden doesn’t declare, that could have an impact on the markets because the rest of the Democratic field is full of anti-capitalist, anti-business socialists and Marxists.
“Early polls for 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination are favoring Joe Biden,” the strategist added. “Bernie Sanders comes in second place, by a 7 point spread relative to Biden, however, Sanders is seen by our Survey respondents as the second least acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market.”
The least acceptable is Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is a multi-millionaire herself.
That said, Wall Street investors, by 80 percent, believed that Hillary Clinton was going to win the 2016 election.
But so did every “mainstream” media outlet, political pundit, and survey outfit.
- Follow Jon Dougherty on Twitter at @JonDougherty10